The Local Players: Rebel Groups and Militia Alliances

At the heart of the chaos are Syria’s numerous rebel factions, each with its own agenda and territorial ambitions. These groups played a significant role in Assad’s ousting, but their lack of cohesion now poses a significant challenge to stabilizing the country.

• Free Syrian Army (FSA): Once the face of Syria’s opposition, the FSA is attempting to reclaim its relevance by positioning itself as the leader in transitional governance. However, its influence is limited, and it faces competition from more radical elements.
• Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS): An Islamist militant group, HTS controls large parts of Idlib province and has established a de facto government in the region. Though powerful, its extremist roots complicate its ability to gain broader legitimacy.
• Kurdish Forces: The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), led by Kurdish militias, maintain control in the northeast. Their focus remains on autonomy for Kurdish regions, but they face pressure from Turkey, which views them as a security threat.

These groups, while significant, lack the unity to present a unified front, creating a fragmented and unstable post-Assad landscape.

Regional Powers: A Proxy Battlefield

Syria’s internal struggles are deeply intertwined with regional rivalries, making it a proxy battlefield for neighboring powers. Here’s how the key regional players are positioning themselves:

• Iran: A staunch ally of Assad, Iran’s influence in Syria is now under threat. Tehran has long used Syria as a corridor to support Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the loss of Assad weakens its strategic depth. However, Iran is unlikely to relinquish its foothold and will likely bolster allied militias to retain influence.
• Turkey: With Assad gone, Turkey’s focus shifts to preventing the establishment of a Kurdish state near its border. Ankara is likely to intensify operations against Kurdish forces while seeking to expand its influence in northern Syria through proxies.
• Israel: Israel has ramped up its military presence near the Golan Heights, citing concerns over Iranian activity in Syria. The power vacuum could lead to increased Israeli strikes on Iranian-linked targets as it seeks to maintain regional security.

Global Stakeholders: The U.S., Russia, and Others

While regional powers jostle for influence, global stakeholders also have a vested interest in shaping Syria’s future.

• United States: The U.S. has maintained a limited presence in Syria, primarily focused on combating ISIS. With Assad gone, Washington faces a dilemma: whether to support democratic forces or risk Syria becoming a breeding ground for extremism.
• Russia: Moscow’s decision to grant Assad asylum underscores its ongoing commitment to influence in Syria. Having invested heavily in propping up Assad’s regime, Russia will likely continue to back allied factions to secure its interests in the region.
• China: While less overtly involved, China sees post-Assad Syria as an opportunity for economic expansion, particularly through infrastructure development projects under its Belt and Road Initiative.

The Humanitarian Crisis

Amidst the power struggles, the humanitarian crisis in Syria remains dire. Millions of displaced Syrians face uncertainty about returning home, while those still in the country endure shortages of basic necessities. The international community faces immense pressure to provide aid while navigating the complex web of alliances and rivalries.

Rebuilding Syria will require massive investments and international cooperation, yet the fractured nature of the country’s political landscape complicates these efforts.

The Road Ahead

With no clear leader emerging in post-Assad Syria, the country risks further fragmentation. The interplay of local factions, regional powers, and global stakeholders creates a volatile mix that could either lead to a new era of governance or plunge Syria deeper into chaos.

Ultimately, who controls Syria now depends on whether competing interests can find common ground or continue to fuel division. For the Syrian people, the hope remains that this new chapter will prioritize peace and stability over power and politics.