Mark your calendars – or maybe just start working on that bucket list. NASA’s latest space headache, an asteroid named 2024 YR4, is headed Earth’s way, and let’s just say it’s not coming for a friendly flyby.
This space rock has a 3.1% chance of slamming into Earth on December 22, 2032. Merry Christmas, right?
How Big Are We Talking?
This isn’t some pebble. 2024 YR4 measures between 40 to 90 meters, that’s roughly the size of a blue whale or two stacked end-to-end. If it hits, experts say it could release energy equal to 8 megatons of TNT. For context, that’s about 500 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb. Yeah, not great.
Where Could It Hit?
NASA’s current projections show several possible impact zones, including:
- Northern South America – Cities like Bogotá could be in the danger zone.
- Africa – Lagos, one of the world’s largest cities, could feel the impact.
- South Asia – Major hubs like Mumbai and Chennai are on the watch list.
- The Atlantic Ocean and the Arabian Sea – Even a water impact would cause massive tsunamis.
Combined, these areas are home to over 110 million people. And while the odds may seem small, a 3.1% chance is actually the highest impact probability NASA’s ever recorded for an asteroid of this size.
So, Should We Panic Yet?
Not quite. First off, space agencies still have time to refine their calculations. Right now, the asteroid is visible, but it’ll dip out of view by April 2025 and won’t show up again until 2028. In that time, telescopes like the James Webb Space Telescope will gather more data to figure out exactly how worried we should be.
NASA’s Plan: Don’t Just Sit There – Deflect It
The good news? NASA and other space agencies aren’t just watching – they’re working on ways to prevent an impact. After successfully nudging an asteroid during the DART mission in 2022, scientists know it’s possible to change an asteroid’s course. If 2024 YR4 stays on track to hit Earth, expect some serious asteroid-whacking missions to launch.
While a 3.1% chance might not sound huge, it’s enough to keep astronomers and everyone else. on edge. For now, we wait. But hey, if you’ve ever wanted an excuse to cross off your bucket list, now might be the time. After all, if 2024 YR4 decides to drop in, it won’t be sending an RSVP.
Stay tuned because this story is far from over.
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