During a government shutdown and heightening economic uncertainty, President Donald Trump has been asked by many Americans if he will sign a new wave of stimulus checks in October 2025.
Rumors abounded on social media after Trump recently made comments on whether his administration was examining methods to issue direct payments to citizens, potentially underwritten by tariff revenue.
Stimulus checks are straight government payments designed to increase spending by consumers when the economy is under pressure. The subject has picked up momentum again this month, especially as New Jersey residents begin to receive ANCHOR property tax relief checks, and the state of New York sends out state-funded “inflation refund” payments of up to $400. These state fund payments have caused some to wrongly assume a new federal stimulus program is in the offing.
But as of now, no official word exists that a fourth federal stimulus check will be distributed in October. Such a step would take Congressional authorization, which has been slowed by the current government shutdown and partisan conflicts over spending priorities. Based on current political dynamics, the prospects for immediate stimulus action are small.
In defiance of uncertainty, Trump has consistently toyed with the notion of “tariff-funded checks” – a policy that would return revenue generated from tariffs on foreign imports to American families. The President revisited the idea on October 2 when he granted an interview to One America News and posited that his administration was “looking at something” that would mirror a tariff rebate or national dividend.
He said that revenue from the administration’s more stringent tariff policies could be used to do two things: pay down the national debt while at the same time sending money back to the people. Trump framed the possible plan as a means of providing Americans with a direct economic windfall from his economic policy, stating:
“We’re looking at something where revenue from tariffs could be used to pay down debt and make a distribution to the people – almost like a dividend.”
According to Trump, the proposed payouts could range between $1,000 and $2,000 per person, though no formal plan or timeline has been announced. He also emphasized his belief that the current pace of economic growth could mitigate concerns over debt accumulation:
“With the type of growth we have today, the debt is minimal. You grow out of that debt, it’s not a matter of paying for it. You grow out. We’ll pay debt back, but we may make a payout to the people.”
Though these comments have generated public interest, economic analysts warn that payments funded by tariffs would present both substantial logistical and political hurdles. Tariff revenues are unpredictable and generally not large enough to fund widespread stimulus payments. Additionally, tapping them could meet with opposition from Congress and business interests already hostile to the economic effects of Trump’s aggressive trade policies.
Meanwhile, Americans expecting a federal stimulus check in October are cautioned to lower expectations. To date, no official bill or executive order has been signed into law, and since the government shutdown is in place, federal agencies do not have the appropriations to make new payments even if authorization were received.
As yet, Trump’s “tariff rebate” or “dividend to the people” remains an idea, not an announced program. The White House has not provided additional information, and congressional leaders have taken no action toward initiating companion legislation.
As the shutdown persists and economic stresses build, it is uncertain if the President’s tariff-based proposal will take off or become another broken campaign promise.
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