2025 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Breakdown
The 2025 NCAA Tournament started with 68 teams, but only 16 remain as March Madness rolls into the Sweet 16. With the Final Four in San Antonio just two wins away, the competition is heating up, and powerhouse programs like Duke, Florida, and Houston are battling alongside surprise contenders like BYU and Ole Miss.
With all four No. 1 seeds still alive, the tournament has seen fewer major upsets than usual. However, Arkansas pulled off a statement win as a No. 10 seed to reach this stage, while Maryland’s Derik Queen delivered a buzzer-beater to send Colorado State packing.
Now, the remaining teams prepare for regional semifinal action.
West Regional – Chase Center, San Francisco
(1) Florida vs. (4) Maryland
Scouting Florida
The Gators have been dominant all season, ranking No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 10 in defensive efficiency (per KenPom). All-American Walter Clayton Jr. leads a deep, talented squad that overpowered defending champion UConn to reach this stage. Florida’s size, depth, and elite guard play make them one of the toughest teams left in the field.
Scouting Maryland
Maryland boasts a star-studded starting lineup, headlined by Derik Queen, a projected first-round NBA Draft pick. Alongside Julian Reese, Queen gives Maryland a formidable frontcourt presence, while Ja’Kobi Gillespie, Rodney Rice, and Selton Miguel provide scoring depth. However, bench production has been a concern, with the Terrapins ranking No. 314 in bench minutes this season.
(3) Texas Tech vs. (10) Arkansas
Scouting Texas Tech
Texas Tech thrives on transfers, with seven of its top eight players coming from the portal. Freshman Christian Anderson is the lone exception. Big 12 Player of the Year JT Toppin, a former New Mexico standout, has become an NBA prospect. The Red Raiders boast an elite offense, ranking No. 5 in efficiency and excelling in shooting percentages.
Scouting Arkansas
Arkansas made history as just the second team in 20 years to reach the Sweet 16 after starting conference play 0-5. In John Calipari’s first season, the Razorbacks have peaked at the perfect time. With elite shot-blocking (5.6 per game) and a roster stacked with transfers and ex-Kentucky recruits, Arkansas’ size and depth make them a dangerous threat.
East Regional – Prudential Center, Newark
(1) Duke vs. (4) Arizona
Scouting Duke
Duke is the tallest team in Division I, with a starting five featuring future NBA lottery picks Cooper Flagg and Khaman Maluach. Their elite offense and defense, combined with strong veteran leadership, make them a top title contender. Duke ranks top five in adjusted efficiency on both ends and boasts one of the most balanced rosters in the tournament.
Scouting Arizona
Arizona is looking to break its Final Four drought (since 2001) and will rely on its dominant rebounding (ranked No. 15 in offensive rebounding percentage). The Wildcats score 82.1 points per game, ranking 19th nationally, but will need a strong defensive effort to keep pace with Duke’s firepower.
(2) Alabama vs. (6) BYU
Scouting Alabama
Alabama’s high-powered offense, averaging 91.1 points per game, leads Division I. The Crimson Tide thrive on speed, ranking No. 1 in adjusted tempo and fourth in possession length (14.9 seconds). To stop them, teams must slow the pace and contain All-American Mark Sears. With elite depth, Alabama is primed for another deep NCAA Tournament run.
Scouting BYU
BYU is playing in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2011 under new coach Kevin Young, a former NBA assistant. The Cougars have seen massive improvements from Richie Saunders (16 PPG) and have a potential NBA Draft lottery pick in freshman Egor Demin.
Midwest Regional – Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
(1) Houston vs. (4) Purdue
Scouting Houston
Kelvin Sampson’s teams are built on defense, and this Houston squad is no exception. But unlike last year, the offense has taken a leap, especially from beyond the arc – shooting 39.8% from three, the best in the nation. Ranked No. 1 in defensive efficiency and 10th offensively (KenPom), Houston thrives at a slow, methodical pace.
Scouting Purdue
Purdue returns to the Sweet 16 a year after its national title run. All-American Braden Smith leads the charge, ranking second nationally in assists (8.6 per game). The biggest surprise? Trey Kaufman-Renn’s scoring surge from 6.4 to 20.2 PPG. Purdue ranks sixth in offensive efficiency (KenPom) and shoots 38.3% from three, making them a serious threat.
(2) Tennessee vs. (3) Kentucky
Scouting Tennessee
Tennessee remains one of the nation’s top defensive teams, ranking No. 2 in adjusted defensive efficiency, third in 3-point defense (28.3%), and sixth in block percentage (15.7%). Guards Zakai Zeigler and Jahmai Mashack are elite defenders, while transfer Chaz Lanier provides scoring. With limited bench usage (25.1% of minutes), the Vols rely heavily on their starters.
Scouting Kentucky
Mark Pope’s first year at Kentucky has been a success, with the Wildcats making their first Sweet 16 since 2019. Despite losing star guard Jaxson Robinson, they thrive on shooting, ranking 24th in 3-point percentage (37.4%). Defensive leader Lamont Butler, a 2023 Final Four standout, has battled injuries but remains crucial to their tournament run.
South Regional – State Farm Arena, Atlanta
(1) Auburn vs. (5) Michigan
Scouting Auburn
Auburn dominated the regular season but stumbled late, losing three of its last four games before the NCAA Tournament. The Tigers survived a tough Round of 32 battle against Creighton, led by National Player of the Year contender Johni Broome. With a top-tier offense, Auburn ranks No. 3 in adjusted efficiency and fifth in turnover percentage (13.4%).
Scouting Michigan
Michigan is the only Division I team starting two 7-footers, Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin, setting up a showdown with Auburn’s frontcourt. The Wolverines rank 15th in 2-point percentage (57.3%) but struggle from deep (33.3%). They thrive in close games, going 14-4 in contests decided by five points or fewer, winning 12 straight in that margin.
(2) Michigan State vs. (6) Ole Miss
Scouting Michigan State
For the 16th time under Tom Izzo, Michigan State is in the Sweet 16. The Spartans dominated the Big Ten regular season (17-3) but fell to Wisconsin in the conference tournament. They boast the nation’s top 3-point defense (27.7%) and rank fifth in adjusted defensive efficiency. However, their weakness lies in 3-point shooting, hitting just 31.1% (No. 316 nationally).
Scouting Ole Miss
Chris Beard joined an elite group of coaches by winning an NCAA Tournament game with four different programs, leading Ole Miss to its first Sweet 16 in 24 years. After defeating Iowa State, the Rebels are eyeing their first-ever Elite Eight appearance. Their key strength? Ball security – ranking third nationally with a turnover percentage of just 13%.
Who Will Reach the Final Four?
With top seeds dominating, will underdogs like Arkansas or BYU pull off an upset? Will Duke, Houston, and Florida continue their dominance? Let us know your Final Four predictions in the comments!
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