It’s been a rough month for retail giants. Amazon, Walmart, and Target all saw their stocks tumble more than 10% in March, and the blame points in one clear direction: tariffs.
With the S&P 500 itself sliding 5% over the same period, it’s clear the market has been bracing for impact, specifically, the economic aftershocks of President Trump’s looming tariff rollout. These aren’t small adjustments; we’re talking sweeping trade measures that investors fear could hit import-heavy businesses right where it hurts: their margins.
Target: The Biggest Loser in the Bunch
Target stock dropped a staggering 16% in March, the worst of the trio. And it’s not just tariffs rattling shareholders. Target has been limping through weak discretionary spending trends, and the new tariffs may only add fuel to the fire. Unlike Walmart and Amazon, Target is more dependent on product categories like home goods and apparel, areas where customers are pulling back the most.
Their recent strategy shift aims to strengthen key categories and improve omnichannel shopping. But if the cost of imports rises due to new trade policies, Target could find itself stuck between higher supply costs and cautious consumers.
Amazon and Walmart: Global Giants Still Vulnerable
Amazon and Walmart each dropped over 10%, but for slightly different reasons. Walmart has a robust international footprint, owning retail chains in several countries. Even with strong grocery and e-commerce performance in the U.S., it relies heavily on imports, and tariffs could squeeze its supply chain.
Amazon, on the other hand, is somewhat insulated thanks to its tech dominance, Amazon Web Services (AWS) continues to rake in profits. But retail is still core to the brand, and any disruption to imports or global trade flows puts pressure on its already razor-thin margins.
Why the Market is Nervous
Investors were hoping for clarity, some “known unknowns” to help them price in the risks. But so far, Trump’s tariff announcement has created more questions than answers. Which products? Which countries? For how long?
Target, Walmart, and Amazon all depend on supply chains that stretch around the globe. Uncertainty around tariffs means uncertainty around costs, and that means uncertainty around earnings.
Is This a Buying Opportunity?
Possibly. All three stocks are trading near five-year lows and below their average price-to-earnings ratios. For risk-tolerant investors, this could be a good time to pick up discounted shares. Target is a bet on a turnaround. Walmart offers stability and dividend yield. Amazon has high-growth potential thanks to AI and cloud infrastructure.
Still, caution is warranted. If the trade war escalates, these stocks could dip further before rebounding.
Retail is bracing for impact. Tariffs could tighten margins, disrupt supply chains, and slow down consumer spending. But long-term? The giants will likely adapt. They always do.
