Millions of seniors eagerly await October each year to learn how much their monthly Social Security checks will increase in the coming year.
But in 2025, they may need to wait longer than usual to find out their 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA).
The Social Security Administration had planned to announce the 2026 COLA on October 15, the same day the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was expected to release its September inflation report. However, the ongoing government shutdown has forced nearly all of the bureau’s 2,055 employees, except one, to be furloughed, putting the release of critical economic data in jeopardy. According to the bureau’s contingency plan, scheduled releases like the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report “will likely be delayed if the lapse is prolonged.”
Without September’s inflation report, the Social Security Administration cannot calculate the new COLA. The annual adjustment is determined by the average increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) from July through September. Despite the disruption, experts say the data collection process for September is already complete, so the integrity of the information shouldn’t be affected.
“A government shutdown could potentially delay an announcement of the COLA, but remember, the data is for September and that has already been collected,” said Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst. She emphasized that while seniors may face delays in learning the new COLA, their payments are not at risk. “Social Security benefits have a permanent funding source and aren’t affected by Congress’ annual budgeting process,” she added.
This wouldn’t be the first time a government shutdown disrupted the timing of the COLA announcement. The last and only delay occurred in October 2013, when the government shut down for 16 days over funding for the Affordable Care Act. That year, the September CPI report, originally due October 16, was released two weeks later on October 30, along with the announcement of a 1.5% COLA increase for 2014.
As for what retirees can expect this time, estimates based on data through August suggest a 2.8% increase in Social Security checks for 2026, slightly up from the previous month’s 2.7% projection. The overall CPI rose 2.9% in August, while the CPI-W increased 2.8%. A 2.8% COLA would translate to roughly a $52 monthly boost for the average Social Security recipient, whose benefit stood at $1,864.87 in August.
The COLA announcement is one of the most anticipated updates for older Americans each year, as it directly affects their financial planning and budgeting. However, another crucial fall announcement, Medicare premiums, may bring less welcome news.
Medicare costs are projected to rise significantly in 2026. The Medicare Trustees have estimated that the standard monthly Part B premium will jump $21.50, from $185.00 to $206.50. “A jump of $21.50 would be very close to setting the record for the highest premium increase in program history, which was $21.60 in 2022,” Johnson noted.
Part D prescription drug plan premiums are also expected to rise sharply, with insurers allowed to increase rates by as much as $50 per month in 2026, up from $35 in 2025. According to nonprofit health care researcher KFF, more than 33 million Medicare beneficiaries are enrolled in freestanding Part D plans.
Johnson added that the combination of rising Medicare costs and modest COLA increases has many seniors on edge. “I can report that the stress and anger levels of my older friends, neighbors, and new acquaintances are very high, and Medicare costs are a top concern,” she said.
While the 2026 COLA announcement may be delayed due to the shutdown, experts stress that Social Security checks will continue uninterrupted. For now, seniors will have to wait and watch how long the shutdown lasts before they get clarity on next year’s benefit increase.
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